Why Taking Down a Don't Pass Bet After a 6 or 8 May Be a Costly Craps Decision

August 15, 2026

One of the most interesting decisions in craps occurs after a player makes a Don't Pass or Don't Come bet and the point becomes a 6 or 8.

Some players see the 6 or 8 as a dangerous number because these numbers are among the most frequently rolled point numbers. That can create the temptation to take the Don't bet down and avoid the risk.

Mathematically, however, that decision deserves a much closer look.

The reason is simple:

Once a 6 or 8 becomes the point, the Don't bettor is actually in the stronger position.

The 6 and 8 Are Common Numbers

A pair of dice produces 36 possible combinations.

The number 6 can be rolled in five ways:

The same is true for 8:

The 7, however, can be rolled in six ways.

That makes the 7 the most frequently occurring number on two dice.

This distinction is critical for a Don't bettor.

Once the point is established as a 6 or 8, the contest effectively becomes:

7 versus 6 or 7 versus 8.

And the 7 has the mathematical advantage.

The Don't Bettor Becomes the Favorite

After a 6 or 8 is established, there are 11 relevant combinations:

6 combinations produce a 7
5 combinations produce the point

Therefore:

Probability of 7 before the point:

[
6/11 = 54.55%
]

Probability of the point before 7:

[
5/11 = 45.45%
]

That means the Don't bettor has approximately a 54.55% probability of winning the remaining contest.

This is an important concept because the player may emotionally perceive the 6 or 8 as dangerous while the mathematics are saying something different.

The point is a common number.

But the 7 is even more common.

So Why Take the Bet Down?

Suppose you have a $100 Don't Pass bet and the point becomes 8.

At that moment, you have a position in which:

7 has 6 combinations
8 has 5 combinations

If you remove your Don't Pass bet, you eliminate your exposure to that favorable 6-to-5 relationship.

You're no longer positioned to benefit from the 7 appearing before the point.

In other words, you're abandoning the bet at the moment the remaining probability favors you.

That doesn't mean keeping the bet guarantees a win. It doesn't.

The 8 can absolutely appear first.

But probability doesn't require certainty.

The mathematical advantage comes from the fact that the 7 wins more often than the 8 in this particular comparison.

The Come-Out Roll Creates a Different Risk

There is another reason this decision is interesting.

If a Don't Pass bet is taken down and the player later makes another Don't Pass bet, the player eventually has to deal with the come-out roll again.

On the Don't Pass come-out roll:

7 = 6 combinations

11 = 2 combinations

That's 8 combinations out of 36, or:

[
8/36 = 22.22%
]

So there is a 22.22% probability of an immediate 7 or 11, both of which are unfavorable to the Don't bettor.

There are also the Don't-favorable 2 and 3, while 12 is generally a push.

The important point isn't that the entire Don't Pass bet has a 22.22% house edge or loss probability—it doesn't.

The point is that returning to the come-out roll reintroduces the unique risks associated with that roll.

The Mathematical Question Isn't “Is 6 or 8 Dangerous?”

This is where craps strategy can become psychologically confusing.

A player might think:

“Six and eight are common numbers, so I don't want to have my money sitting there.”

But that's not necessarily the right mathematical question.

The better question is:

“Who is favored after the point has been established?”

With a 6 or 8 as the point, the answer is the Don't bettor.

The 7 has six combinations.

The point has five.

That's a 6-to-5 probability relationship.

The Don't Bettor Should Understand Position

This is also why position matters so much in craps.

A Don't Pass bet isn't mathematically identical throughout the entire sequence.

The situation changes after the come-out roll.

Before the point is established, the Don't bettor has to navigate the come-out rules.

After a 6 or 8 is established, the bet enters a completely different probability state.

The player now has a direct contest between the point and the 7.

This creates an important strategic principle:

Don't evaluate a craps bet only by looking at the number itself. Evaluate the position you're currently in.

A 6 or 8 may be a frequent number, but that doesn't automatically make it a bad number for the Don't bettor.

What Happens If You Take the Bet Down?

Taking the bet down doesn't create a mathematical loss by itself.

You simply give up the remaining wager.

That's an important distinction.

If you have a $100 Don't Pass bet and remove it after a 6 is established, you haven't mathematically “lost” $100.

You've simply chosen not to participate in the remaining 6-versus-7 proposition.

The question is whether that decision improves your position.

From a probability standpoint, you are giving up a situation where the 7 is favored 54.55% to 45.45%.

That is why removing the Don't bet at this specific point can be viewed as a poor strategic decision.

The Bigger Craps Lesson

This example demonstrates why craps strategy shouldn't be based solely on whether a number is “hot,” “dangerous,” or “likely to roll.”

Probability is conditional.

The same number can represent a different strategic situation depending on which side of the bet you are on and what has already happened.

For a Don't bettor, the 6 and 8 aren't simply numbers that are likely to appear.

Once one becomes the point, it becomes the number that must appear before the 7 for the Don't bettor to lose.

And mathematically:

7 = 6 combinations

6 or 8 = 5 combinations

Therefore:

7 before 6/8 = 54.55%

6/8 before 7 = 45.45%

That's why taking down a Don't Pass or Don't Come bet simply because the point became a 6 or 8 can be difficult to justify mathematically.

Final Thought

The worst decision isn't necessarily making a Don't Pass or Don't Come bet when a 6 or 8 becomes the point.

The more interesting question is what happens after the point is established.

If the 7 has become the favorite, why voluntarily remove your wager?

You're not guaranteed to win by keeping the bet. Craps remains a game of variance, and the 6 or 8 can still appear before the 7.

But mathematically, the position has changed in your favor.

The 6 and 8 may be common numbers—but for the Don't bettor, once they're established as the point, the 7 is the number you want, and the 7 has the mathematical advantage.

Gus Santos

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