Don’t Pass and Lay Odds: Understanding True Odds

Let's make this simple.

When you make a Don't Pass bet, the first roll is called the come-out roll.

On that roll, the Don't Pass loses immediately if the result is 7 or 11.

There are 6 ways to roll a 7 and 2 ways to roll an 11.

That's:

So there is a 22.22% chance of losing immediately.

If the roll is not a 7 or 11, a point is established.

Now the math changes.

Example: The Point Is 10

There are 3 ways to roll a 10:

• 4 + 6
• 5 + 5
• 6 + 4

There are 6 ways to roll a 7.

So there are:

6 ways to roll a 7

versus

3 ways to roll a 10

That means the 7 is twice as likely to appear before the 10.

Why Does the Lay Bet Pay 1 to 2?

This is where true odds come in.

If you lay odds against a 10, you are risking $2 to win $1.

For example:

Risk $200 → Win $100

Why?

Because the 7 has twice as many combinations as the 10.

The payout reflects the actual probability of the numbers.

There is no extra house edge added to the odds portion.

The Difference Between the Two Bets

The original Don't Pass bet has a house edge.

The lay odds portion has zero house edge when it is paid at true odds.

These are two different mathematical components of the same wager.

The first bet contains the casino's mathematical advantage.

The odds portion is paid according to the actual relationship between the 7 and the point.

Why Does This Matter?

Consider what happens after the point is established.

The original Don't Pass wager has already survived the come-out roll.

Now there is an opportunity to make an additional wager that is paid at true odds.

Using a 10 as the example:

7 = 6 combinations

10 = 3 combinations

Therefore:

6 ÷ 3 = 2

The 7 is twice as likely to appear before the 10.

The lay odds payout reflects that relationship:

Risk $2 to win $1.

This is what makes the odds portion different from a normal casino wager.

The casino is not building a house advantage into the payout.

It is paying according to the actual probability.

The Simple Math

Don't Pass:
Contains a house edge.

Lay Odds:
Paid at true odds.

Point 10:
7 has 6 combinations.

10:
3 combinations.

Relationship:
6 to 3, or 2 to 1.

Lay payout:
Risk $2 to win $1.

The important concept is simple:

True odds mean the payout matches the mathematical probability of the outcome.

 

Gus Santos