🎯 "The Yo That Bleeds You: Why Hedging the Don't Come Is a Silent Bankroll Killer"

 

If you're a craps player who likes the Don't Come bet, you're probably someone who appreciates math, edge, and discipline. But if you're also hedging that Don't Come with a bet on 11 (Yo), you're introducing a costly mistake — and you might not even realize it.

Let’s break it down.

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🎲 The Setup: Don’t Come with an 11 Hedge

Here’s what many players do:

• They place a $10 Don't Come bet.
• To protect themselves from losing on the 11, they place a $1 Yo bet, which pays 15:1 if the shooter rolls an 11.

At first glance, it seems smart:

• If the shooter rolls an 11 (a DC killer), you win $15 on the Yo.
• Net profit = $5 (after losing your $10 DC bet).

But here’s the catch — that protection costs you. A lot.

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📉 Why It's a Losing Hedge

Let’s look at the actual probabilities on the come-out roll for your Don't Come bet:

Outcome	Probability	Effect
2 or 3	5.56%	You win the DC
12	2.78%	Push (no win/loss)
7 or 11	22.22%	You lose (11 = your hedge target)
4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10	66.67%	Point is set

So only 1 in 18 rolls (5.56%) is an 11, where the Yo bet helps you.

That means:

• 17 out of 18 times, you lose that $1 hedge for nothing.
• And the Yo bet has a massive 11.11% house edge — one of the worst on the table.

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🔍 The Cost of "Feeling Safe"

Let’s say you make this play 1,000 times:

• You’ll hit the Yo about 56 times → You win $15 x 56 = $840
• You’ll lose the Yo bet 944 times → You lose $1 x 944 = $944
• Net loss = $104

You're paying over $100 just for "insurance" that helps you less than 6% of the time.

That’s what seasoned players call leakage — small, consistent losses that slowly erode your bankroll.

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🧠 The Smarter Play: Trust the Math

The Don’t Come bet has one of the lowest house edges in the casino: around 1.36%. It doesn't need a hedge.

Adding the Yo bet dilutes your edge, turning a smart play into a leaky one.

If you're scared of the 11, you're in the wrong strategy. Either:

• Accept that 1-in-18 sting as part of the game, or
• Stay off the DC line

But don’t sabotage a great bet with a bad one.

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✅ Final Word: Stop Bleeding, Start Winning

Concept	Recommendation
Don’t Come	Keep it — strong, low-edge bet
Yo Hedge	Drop it — poor value, high house edge
Long-Term Profit	Comes from discipline, not protection bets