🎲 Why the Arnold Crap Strategy Fails

The Arnold Craps Strategy is built around a hybrid of Pass Line, Don't Come, and Come bets, often using laddering (pressing or regressing based on results). While it’s designed to hedge and reduce volatility by capitalizing on the frequent appearance of the number 7, it has several critical flaws that can lead to consistent losses over time.

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❌ Why the Arnold Strategy Fails

1. It Bets Against Itself

At its core, the Arnold Strategy places bets on both the Pass Line (betting with the shooter) and the Don't Come (betting against the shooter). This creates a situation where one bet wins while another loses, meaning you're frequently just trading money with the house — but paying the house edge on every exchange.

• For example, if the point is 6 and the Don't Come bet lands on 5, a 7-out wins the DC but loses the pass line.
• You win one and lose one — but never both — and over time, the vig slowly bleeds your bankroll.

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2. Double Exposure to the 7

While the strategy tries to "leverage the 7" as the most common roll, it actually creates double exposure depending on where the shooter is in the sequence:

• On the come-out roll, a 7 is great for the Pass Line but kills any Don't Come bets.
• After the point is set, a 7 will kill all Come bets still active and only benefit the Don't Come line.

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3. Come and Don’t Come Conflicts

The alternating use of Come and Don't Come bets in succession is meant to balance the table, but instead it neutralizes potential winning streaks. When the table is hot, the DCs drag down profit. When the table is cold, Come bets get crushed. You're never fully aligned with the table’s trend, which is essential for maximizing runs.

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4. House Edge Still Wins

Each of the bets used — Pass Line, Come, and Don’t Come — are low house edge bets individually (0.5%-1.4%), but when used in opposition and simultaneously, the math no longer works in your favor. Every resolved bet gives the house a chance to collect a tiny edge, and in a strategy with constant resolution, that edge adds up quickly.

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5. Laddering Increases Risk

The laddering (pressing after losses or wins) tries to recoup prior losses, but it's essentially a mild progression system, and:

• If you hit a cold streak, the losses stack.
• If you win and press, you’re increasing exposure right before a potential 7-out.

Over time, this can lead to large swings — not the steady, low-variance path the strategy promises.

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✅ Final Verdict

The Arnold Craps Strategy fails because it tries to straddle both sides of the table, making it impossible to benefit fully from any single trend. It introduces internal contradictions, increases exposure to the house edge, and suffers from long-term expected losses due to trading bets that cancel each other out. While it may occasionally produce short-term wins, the math always catches up — and the house, slowly but surely, takes its share.