"The Hidden Intrinsic Value in Craps Betting"
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🎲 Don’t Pass Line with Point = 4: A Strong Position
When the point becomes 4, you now have a 66.67% chance to win. That’s a very favorable position. You essentially "own" a bet that will win 2 out of 3 times, based on the math.
So how is this like an option?
📈 Wall Street Analogy: Options with Intrinsic Value
In options trading:
- A call option gives you the right to buy an asset at a set price.
- A put option gives you the right to sell an asset at a set price.
- An option has:
- Intrinsic value (it’s already “in the money”)
- Time value (potential to gain more before expiration)
🧠 The Analogy
Don't Pass Line bet when the point is 4 = Owning a put option that's in the money
Here’s why:
- You’re betting against the shooter making the point (like betting an asset will fall — like a put).
- With point 4, the math is on your side — you’re “in the money” with a 66.67% chance to win.
- That 66.67% winning probability is your intrinsic value — just like an option that would make money if exercised right now.
- The longer the bet stays alive without the point being made, the more valuable it “feels” — just like time decay in options.
💡 Key Parallel Concepts
| Don't Pass (Point 4) | Options Trading Equivalent |
|---|---|
| Favorable odds (66.67%) | Intrinsic value (in the money) |
| Risk of 4 being rolled | Risk of stock moving against you |
| Odds change based on point number | Option value changes with price |
| You’re short the point (betting against) | Short the market via put |
🧾 Bonus: “Buying In” After the Point
Let’s say someone walks up after the point is set at 4 and asks to take your Don't Pass bet — you could charge them a premium, just like selling an option with built-in value.
That "premium" would reflect your current edge (66.67% to win vs. 33.33% to lose) — similar to an option price with intrinsic value.
✅ Summary:
A Don't Pass Line bet with point 4 is like a put option that is deep in the money:
- You’re in a winning position
- It has measurable, real advantage (66.67% win rate)
- That advantage is your intrinsic value
- You’re essentially holding a favorable “contract” that someone else might pay to take off your hands