2 Face Craps Strategy High Exposure, Low Recovery Do not play
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Let’s break this down carefully and show where the strategy has flaws, based on real probability, house edge, and risk/reward logic. The strategy you're asking about is:
🎲 Strategy Overview
- No Pass/Don’t Pass bet
- Place Bets:
- $25 each on 4, 5, 9, and 10
- $30 each on 6 and 8
- Hop Bets:
- Hop the 7 in two forms:
- $10 on 3–4
- $10 on 6–1
Total Bet:
- Place Bets: $160
- Hop Bets: $20
- Total at risk per roll: $180
📊 Mathematical Breakdown
🎯 Place Bets
| Number | Bet | Hits (out of 36) | Payout | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 & 10 | $25 | 3 | 9:5 | 6.67% |
| 5 & 9 | $25 | 4 | 7:5 | 4.00% |
| 6 & 8 | $30 | 5 | 7:6 | 1.52% |
- These bets cover 6 out of 8 box numbers, which gives broad coverage, but:
- You’re relying on numbers that take time to hit.
- You lose all six place bets if a 7-out hits.
- 🚨 Hop Bets – "The Dangerous Part"
You're placing two hop bets on different 7 combinations:
- $10 on 3–4
- $10 on 6–1
Both are one-roll bets, with only one specific dice combination per bet. That means:
- True odds: 1 in 36 for each
- Casino pays: 15:1
- House edge: ~11.11%
Let’s be clear:
You're betting $20 on events with only a ~5.56% chance of hitting, each roll.
🧠 Strategic Flaws
❌ 1. No Protection from the 7
You’re trying to "hedge" by hopping the 7 (just two combinations: 3–4 and 6–1), but there are six total combinations that make a 7:
- 1–6
- 2–5
- 3–4
- 4–3
- 5–2
- 6–1
You're only covering two of the six ways a 7 can roll. That's only 1/3 of the possible 7s — and even if it hits, you get $150, but lose $160 in Place bets.
Net result? Still a loss.
❌ 2. High Exposure, Low Recovery
You’re risking $180 per roll:
- $160 of that is vulnerable to any 7
- $20 of that is on high-edge, low-probability one-roll bets
If a 7-out hits, your only hope is one of your hop bets hitting — and even then, you’re likely losing money overall.
For example:
- If 3–4 hits:
- Win $150
- Lose $10 (6–1 miss) + $160 in Place bets = Net loss: $20
- If neither hits (which is likely): Loss = full $180
❌ 3. Unbalanced Risk-to-Reward Ratio
You're spreading across too many numbers and adding risky one-roll bets. There's no progressive edge or advantage mechanism — and you’re giving the house edge on:
- 6.67% (4 & 10)
- 4.00% (5 & 9)
- 1.52% (6 & 8)
- 11.11% (hop bets)
This creates a blended house edge of 4–6% overall, depending on roll outcomes.
Over time, this grinds down your bankroll, especially with the added bleed from the hop bets.
❌ 4. No Odds Bets = Missed Value
You're ignoring the best bet in the casino: Odds behind Pass or Don't Pass, which have 0% house edge. By skipping the line bet entirely, you’re also skipping the opportunity to get behind a point with purely fair odds.
That removes one of the few advantages players can have in craps.
✅ Suggestions for Improvement
If the player wants smarter play with less risk and better value:
- Eliminate the hop bets completely. They're short-term thrill, long-term drain.
- Focus on 6 and 8 Place bets: They hit most frequently and have the lowest house edge (1.52%)
- Consider a minimum Pass Line bet with full odds — the best value in craps
- If you want to cover 4 and 10, do it after a few hits using profit — not on the initial rollout
- Consider removing 5 & 9 if budget is tight; they have better odds than 4/10, but lower return than 6/8.
🧾 Final Assessment
| Element | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Bet | $180 per roll |
| Worst Bet | Hop 7s (11.11% house edge, one-roll, high variance) |
| Best Bet | Place 6 & 8 |
| Break-even Roll Needed | Multiple hits without a 7 — rare over time |
| Long-Term Outlook | Bleeds bankroll slowly, then fast if streaks don’t favor you |
🎯 Summary:
This strategy looks exciting but performs poorly over time. The hop bets are high-risk distractions, and the place bets — though more solid — are too exposed without any odds protection or line-based leverage.
This isn’t a strategy designed to outsmart the game — it’s one that tries to outlast luck, and the math doesn’t support that long term.