"The Gambler’s Fallacy Explained: Why Streaks Don’t Change the Odds"

The Gambler’s Fallacy is the mistaken belief that past random events affect the probability of future independent events.

In simple terms: People think a certain outcome is “due” just because it hasn’t happened in a while.

🧠 Example in Craps

Craps is full of independent random events—each roll of the dice is unaffected by the previous roll.

But here’s how the fallacy often shows up:

❌ Common Gambler’s Fallacy in Craps:

• “The shooter hasn’t rolled a 7 in 15 rolls… it’s bound to come next!”
• “We’ve seen four 6s in a row—there’s no way another 6 is coming.”
• “The last three shooters have sevened out quickly… the next one has to go long!”

Reality: Every roll is independent. The odds of rolling a 7 (or any number) remain the same on each roll—1 in 6 for a 7 with two dice—regardless of what came before.

🎯 Why It’s Dangerous in Craps

Believing in the gambler’s fallacy can lead to:

• Overbetting on "due" outcomes
• Poor bankroll management based on emotional decisions
• False patterns that don’t actually exist in a game of pure probability

For example, increasing your bet every roll because "a 7 has to come soon" often leads to steep losses—because probability doesn't "balance out" over short terms.

✅ How to Avoid the Gambler’s Fallacy

• Stick to the math: Know the true probabilities (e.g., 6 and 8 are the most likely non-7 numbers at 5:36 odds).
• Stay emotionally neutral: Don’t bet bigger or smaller based on streaks.
• Use systems (like 4D Craps) that respect probability, not superstition.

🧾 Bottom Line

In craps, the dice have no memory. The Gambler’s Fallacy convinces players otherwise—leading them to make risky, irrational decisions based on imagined patterns.

The key to long-term success isn’t predicting outcomes—it’s controlling risk, managing bets, and knowing when to engage or step back.